Predicting game prices

By: Elad Ben-Haim, Shalev Hadar


נושא המחקר

נושא המחקר פירוט הנושא
האם ניתן לחזות מחיר של משחק בעוד x זמן? מתי הכי ישתלם לקנות את המשחק בעתיד
האם ניתן לחזור מתי למוכר הכי משתלם לעשות מבצע על המשחק? מתי הכי כדאי למוכר לעשות מבצע כדי להביא עוד שחקנים ולהמשיך למכור עם הרווח הגדול ביותר


נתוני המחקר ודרכי ניתוח

נתוני המחקר & דרכי ניתוח ואיך ננתח אותם
פירוט הנתונים: פרטים פיננסיים הוא נמכר בזמן X ואז לחזות בכמה הוא ימכר בזמן Y ובנוסף פרטים על המשחק - כמו שם, ז'אנר פופולריות וכו'.

נשתמש ב-Crawling על אתר isThereAnyDeal(Fig.3)
כדי לא לקבל הודעת שגיאה על שימוש יתר, נשתמש ב-PROXY כדי לא להחסם ע"י isThereAnyDeal
ונייבא משם את כל המידע הדרוש כדי לחזות את המחיר של משחק בעוד X זמן מסוים.
ראינו שלכל משחק קיים באיזור ה1000+ (Fig.2) רשומות של log (Fig.1) של המחיר שלו ביחס לזמן, ולחנות בה הוא נמכר ואת העלייה\ירידה במחיר של המשחק ביחד ללוג הקודם.
בעזרת STEAM API נוציא את ז'אנר המשחק, שנת הייצור ועוד פרטים מורכבים יותר על המשחק עצמו
ולבסוף נצרף לכל לוג את פרטי המשחק ונקבל Dataset בגודל n = כמות המשחקים, x = כמות הלוגים, כלומר n*x
אנחנו מעוניינים כרגע לקחת את 100 המשחקים הראשונים ולפי מה שראינו כמות הלוגים בדרך כלל היא לפחות 1000 אז נקבל בסביבות ה100,000+ רשומות.

דרכי ניתוח: נשתמש בכלים שלמדנו במהלך הקורס לעבד\ללמוד מהנתונים כמה מידע שאנו צריכים למטרה זו

ננתח את הDataFrame, בעזרת טבלאות יחסי משתנים, סטטיסטיקות, ולבסוף ננסה ללמד מכונה שתחזה את התאריך של המחיר הזול ביותר בשנה מסוימת, ואת המחיר אשר יביא את כמות המכירות הגדול ביותר


Is there any deal log table
Fig.1 - The main crawled data source
Example for number of rows in a typical game
Fig.2 - Example for number of rows in a typical game (Dark souls 3)
Is there any deal game page
Fig.3 - IsThereAnyDeal game page
steamId title history_link type name steam_appid required_age is_free controller_support detailed_description ... supported_language.Italian category.Against players (general screen) category.General screen genre.Casual games genre.Race genre.Animation & Modeling genre.Education genre.Software Training genre.Utilities genre.Game Development
0 359840 Shift Happens https://isthereanydeal.com/game/shifthappens/h... game Shift Happens 359840 0 False full <img src="https://cdn.cloudflare.steamstatic.c... ... NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN
1 1174180 Red Dead Redemption 2 https://isthereanydeal.com/game/reddeadredempt... game Red Dead Redemption 2 1174180 0 False NaN <h1>Ultimate Edition</h1><p><img src="https://... ... NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN
2 1091500 Cyberpunk 2077 https://isthereanydeal.com/game/cyberpunkii0vi... game Cyberpunk 2077 1091500 18 False NaN <h1>Check out other games from CD PROJEKT RED<... ... NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN
3 442070 Drawful 2 https://isthereanydeal.com/game/drawfulii/hist... game Drawful 2 442070 0 False full Updated with awesome new features:<br />\r\nNo... ... NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN
4 21660 Street Fighter IV https://isthereanydeal.com/game/streetfighteri... game Street Fighter® IV 21660 0 False NaN Street Fighter® IV brings the legendary fighti... ... NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN
... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
718 1004490 Tools Up! https://isthereanydeal.com/game/toolsup/history/ game Tools Up! 1004490 0 False full <h1>Chat with us on Discord</h1><p><a href="ht... ... NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN
719 305380 Blue Estate The Game https://isthereanydeal.com/game/blueestategame... game Blue Estate The Game 305380 0 False NaN <strong>Blue Estate</strong> provides previous... ... NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN
720 696530 Lake Ridden https://isthereanydeal.com/game/lakeridden/his... game Lake Ridden 696530 0 False full <h1>Lake Ridden Is LIVE!</h1><p>Hi all! Lake R... ... NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN
721 1421760 What Comes After https://isthereanydeal.com/game/whatcomesafter... game What Comes After 1421760 0 False NaN <h1>More from Rolling Glory Jam</h1><p><a href... ... NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN
722 402880 Age of Barbarian Extended Cut https://isthereanydeal.com/game/ageofbarbarian... game Age of Barbarian Extended Cut 402880 18 False full <strong>INTRODUCTION</strong><br><br><i>In a w... ... NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN

723 rows × 147 columns

3.2.3. Fix steam api raw data
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3.2.3. Finished! (Saved DataFrame to csv)
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3.2.4. Get price history for each game + 3.2.5 get num of players at that time
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(3) Crawling + Fixing Finished! (Saved DataFrame to csv)

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4. Exploratory Data Analysis

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Functions

4.1. Most frequent shop

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This pie shows the market share for each shop (With regard to the amount of games sold)

Outcome: We see that unlike we expected, there is a shop larger than steam, which is GamesPlanet DE.
in addition to that steam has only 4 percent more market share then GamesPlanet FR and Fanatical

4.3. Regular Price / Number of dlcs available

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This graph represents the connection between the regular price and the number of dlcs the game has.

Outcome: We can see clearly that to put it simply, the cheaper the game was more dlcs it has

4.4. Metacric score / Regular Price

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We can see that the regular price is often lined to the metacritic score the game got.

4.5. Game Price / Publisher

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We can see that the most expensive publishers are big companys

4.6. Regular price / Genre

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We can see that the genres Action, adventure and RPG average cost is higher
probably because the development takes far more time for these genres

4.7. Controller support Pie chart

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4.8. Platforms supported Pie chart

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We can see that probably platforms that support Mac also support Linux, and all games support Windows

4.9. Sales of 5 top games over time (the ones which have most history)

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We can see that most games start giving discounts of more than 20% after the first year of release,
then reach 50% on the start of the next year and on the third and fourth reach a max of 80% discount

4.10. Price drop of the top over a year with holidays in mind

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We also see that on holidays the prices of games drop substantially,
but like in the last Plot after the second year, the time of year is not a factor anymore

5. Advanced Analysis and Machine Learning

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5.1. Feature correlation

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5.2. Linear Regression Model

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Deep Learning

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Time Series Forecasting With LSTM

External Resources Used

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